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H 1 Extinction time for the weaker of two competing stochastic SIS logistic epidemics

Auteurs : Luczak, Malwina (Auteur de la Conférence)
CIRM (Editeur )

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    Résumé : We consider a simple stochastic model for the spread of a disease caused by two virus strains in a closed homogeneously mixing population of size N. In our model, the spread of each strain is described by the stochastic logistic SIS epidemic process in the absence of the other strain, and we assume that there is perfect cross-immunity between the two virus strains, that is, individuals infected by one strain are temporarily immune to re-infections and infections by the other strain. For the case where one strain has a strictly larger basic reproductive ratio than the other, and the stronger strain on its own is supercritical (that is, its basic reproductive ratio is larger than 1), we derive precise asymptotic results for the distribution of the time when the weaker strain disappears from the population, that is, its extinction time. We further consider what happens when the difference between the two reproductive ratios may tend to 0.
    This is joint work with Fabio Lopes.

    Codes MSC :
    60J27 - Continuous-time Markov processes on discrete state spaces
    92D30 - Epidemiology

      Informations sur la Vidéo

      Langue : Anglais
      Date de publication : 26/10/2017
      Date de captation : 24/10/2017
      Collection : Research talks ; Probability and Statistics
      Format : MP4
      Durée : 00:48:31
      Domaine : Probability & Statistics
      Audience : Chercheurs ; Doctorants , Post - Doctorants
      Download : https://videos.cirm-math.fr/2017-10-24_luczak.mp4

    Informations sur la rencontre

    Nom de la rencontre : Dynamics on random graphs and random maps / Dynamiques sur graphes et cartes aléatoires
    Organisateurs de la rencontre : Ménard, Laurent ; Nolin, Pierre ; Schapira, Bruno ; Singh, Arvind
    Dates : 23/10/2017 - 27/10/2017
    Année de la rencontre : 2017
    URL Congrès : http://conferences.cirm-math.fr/1672.html

    Citation Data

    DOI : 10.24350/CIRM.V.19229703
    Cite this video as: Luczak, Malwina (2017). Extinction time for the weaker of two competing stochastic SIS logistic epidemics. CIRM. Audiovisual resource. doi:10.24350/CIRM.V.19229703
    URI : http://dx.doi.org/10.24350/CIRM.V.19229703

    Voir aussi


    1. Brightwell, G., House, T., & Luczak, M. (2017). Extinction times in the subcritical stochastic SIS logistic epidemic. - https://arxiv.org/abs/1312.7449

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