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H 1 Inference for spatio-temporal changes of arctic sea ice

Auteurs : Cressie, Noel A. C. (Auteur de la Conférence)
CIRM (Editeur )

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    Résumé : Arctic sea-ice extent has been of considerable interest to scientists in recent years, mainly due to its decreasing trend over the past 20 years. In this talk, I propose a hierarchical spatio-temporal generalized linear model (GLM) for binary Arctic-sea-ice data, where data dependencies are introduced through a latent, dynamic, spatio-temporal mixed-effects model. By using a fixed number of spatial basis functions, the resulting model achieves both dimension reduction and non-stationarity for spatial fields at different time points. An EM algorithm is used to estimate model parameters, and an MCMC algorithm is developed to obtain the predictive distribution of the latent spatio-temporal process. The methodology is applied to spatial, binary, Arctic-sea-ice data for each September over the past 20 years, and several posterior summaries are computed to detect changes of Arctic sea-ice cover. The fully Bayesian version is under development awill be discussed.

    Keywords : Binary data; EM algorithm; empirical Bayes inference; hierarchical statistical model; sea ice extent; spatio‐temporal statistics

    Codes MSC :
    62M10 - Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc.
    62M15 - Spectral analysis of processes
    62M30 - Statistics of spatial processes

      Informations sur la Vidéo

      Langue : Anglais
      Date de publication : 10/12/2018
      Date de captation : 29/11/2018
      Collection : Research talks
      Format : MP4
      Durée : 00:40:37
      Domaine : Probability & Statistics
      Audience : Chercheurs ; Doctorants , Post - Doctorants
      Download : https://videos.cirm-math.fr/2018-11-29_Cressie.mp4

    Informations sur la rencontre

    Nom de la rencontre : Jean-Morlet chair: Bayesian statistics in the big data era / Chaire Jean-Morlet : Statistiques bayésiennes à l'ère du big data
    Organisateurs de la rencontre : Freyemurth, Jean-Marc ; Marin, Jean-Michel ; Mengersen, Kerrie ; Pommeret, Denys ; Pudlo, Pierre
    Dates : 26/11/2018 - 30/11/2018
    Année de la rencontre : 2018
    URL Congrès : https://www.chairejeanmorlet.com/2018-2-...

    Citation Data

    DOI : 10.24350/CIRM.V.19478603
    Cite this video as: Cressie, Noel A. C. (2018). Inference for spatio-temporal changes of arctic sea ice. CIRM. Audiovisual resource. doi:10.24350/CIRM.V.19478603
    URI : http://dx.doi.org/10.24350/CIRM.V.19478603


    Voir aussi

    Bibliographie

    1. Zhang, B., & Cressie, N. (2018), Estimating spatial changes over time of Arctic sea ice using hidden 2×2 tables. Journal of Time Series Analysis - https://doi.org/10.1111/jtsa.12425

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