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H 1 Near-criticality in mathematical models of epidemics

Auteurs : Luczak, Malwina (Auteur de la Conférence)
CIRM (Editeur )

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    Résumé : In an epidemic model, the basic reproduction number $ R_{0}$ is a function of the parameters (such as infection rate) measuring disease infectivity. In a large population, if $ R_{0}> 1$, then the disease can spread and infect much of the population (supercritical epidemic); if $ R_{0}< 1$, then the disease will die out quickly (subcritical epidemic), with only few individuals infected.
    For many epidemics, the dynamics are such that $ R_{0}$ can cross the threshold from supercritical to subcritical (for instance, due to control measures such as vaccination) or from subcritical to supercritical (for instance, due to a virus mutation making it easier for it to infect hosts). Therefore, near-criticality can be thought of as a paradigm for disease emergence and eradication, and understanding near-critical phenomena is a key epidemiological challenge.
    In this talk, we explore near-criticality in the context of some simple models of SIS (susceptible-infective-susceptible) epidemics in large homogeneous populations.

    Keywords : epidemics; Markov chains; law of large numbers; time to extinction

    Codes MSC :
    05C80 - Random graphs
    92D25 - Population dynamics (general)
    92D30 - Epidemiology
    60J28 - Applications of continuous-time Markov processes on discrete state spaces

      Informations sur la Vidéo

      Langue : Anglais
      Date de publication : 03/03/2020
      Date de captation : 20/02/2020
      Collection : Probability and Statistics
      Sous collection : Research talks
      Format : MP4
      Domaine : Probability & Statistics
      Durée : 00:41:20
      Audience : Chercheurs ; Doctorants , Post - Doctorants
      Download : https://videos.cirm-math.fr/2020-02-20_Luczak.mp4

    Informations sur la rencontre

    Nom de la rencontre : Thematic Month Week 3: Mathematical Modeling and Statistical Analysis of Infectious Disease Outbreaks / Mois thématique Semaine 3 : Modélisation mathématique et analyses statistique des épidémies de maladies infectieuses
    Organisateurs de la rencontre : Britton, Tom ; Forien, Raphaël ; Hubert, Florence ; Pardoux, Etienne
    Dates : 17/02/2020 - 21/02/2020
    Année de la rencontre : 2020
    URL Congrès : https://conferences.cirm-math.fr/2303.html

    Citation Data

    DOI : 10.24350/CIRM.V.19612703
    Cite this video as: Luczak, Malwina (2020). Near-criticality in mathematical models of epidemics. CIRM. Audiovisual resource. doi:10.24350/CIRM.V.19612703
    URI : http://dx.doi.org/10.24350/CIRM.V.19612703


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