H 2 Estimating parameters in the initial phase of an epidemic

Auteurs : Scalia Tomba, Gianpaolo (Auteur de la Conférence)
CIRM (Editeur )

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bias because of exponential growth estimating R0 bias in RO < biased generation time multiple infector problem counting delayed events problem

Résumé : In recent years, new pandemic threats have become more and more frequent (SARS, bird flu, swine flu, Ebola, MERS, nCoV...) and analyses of data from the early spread more and more common and rapid. Particular interest is usually focused on the estimation of $ R_{0}$ and various methods, essentially based estimates of exponential growth rate and generation time distribution, have been proposed. Other parameters, such as fatality rate, are also of interest. In this talk, various sources of bias arising because observations are made in the early phase of spread will be discussed and also possible remedies proposed.

Keywords : Mathematical models; infectious diseases; statistics

Codes MSC :
62P10 - Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences
92B05 - General biology and biomathematics
92B15 - General biostatistics, See also {62P10}

    Informations sur la Vidéo

    Langue : Anglais
    Date de publication : 03/03/2020
    Date de captation : 19/02/2020
    Collection : Mathematics in Science and Technology ; Probability and Statistics
    Sous collection : Research talks
    Domaine : Probability & Statistics ; Mathematics in Science & Technology
    Format : MP4 (.mp4) - HD
    Durée : 00:25:42
    Audience : Chercheurs ; Doctorants , Post - Doctorants
    Download : https://videos.cirm-math.fr/2020-02-17_Tomba.mp4

Informations sur la rencontre

Nom de la rencontre : Thematic Month Week 3: Mathematical Modeling and Statistical Analysis of Infectious Disease Outbreaks / Mois thématique Semaine 3 : Modélisation mathématique et analyses statistique des épidémies de maladies infectieuses
Organisateurs de la rencontre : Britton, Tom ; Forien, Raphaël ; Hubert, Florence ; Pardoux, Etienne
Dates : 17/02/2020 - 21/02/2020
Année de la rencontre : 2020
URL Congrès : https://conferences.cirm-math.fr/2303.html

Citation Data

DOI : 10.24350/CIRM.V.19612903
Cite this video as: Scalia Tomba, Gianpaolo (2020). Estimating parameters in the initial phase of an epidemic. CIRM. Audiovisual resource. doi:10.24350/CIRM.V.19612903
URI : http://dx.doi.org/10.24350/CIRM.V.19612903

Voir aussi


  • BRITTON, Tom et TOMBA, Gianpaolo Scalia. Estimation in emerging epidemics: biases and remedies Supplementary Information (SI). 2018. - https://arxiv.org/abs/1803.01688

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