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## Estimating parameters in the initial phase of an epidemic Scalia Tomba, Gianpaolo | CIRM H

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Research talks;Mathematics in Science and Technology;Probability and Statistics

In recent years, new pandemic threats have become more and more frequent (SARS, bird flu, swine flu, Ebola, MERS, nCoV...) and analyses of data from the early spread more and more common and rapid. Particular interest is usually focused on the estimation of $R_{0}$ and various methods, essentially based estimates of exponential growth rate and generation time distribution, have been proposed. Other parameters, such as fatality rate, are also of interest. In this talk, various sources of bias arising because observations are made in the early phase of spread will be discussed and also possible remedies proposed. In recent years, new pandemic threats have become more and more frequent (SARS, bird flu, swine flu, Ebola, MERS, nCoV...) and analyses of data from the early spread more and more common and rapid. Particular interest is usually focused on the estimation of $R_{0}$ and various methods, essentially based estimates of exponential growth rate and generation time distribution, have been proposed. Other parameters, such as fatality rate, are also of ...

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