m
• E

F Nous contacter

0

# Documents  60J28 | enregistrements trouvés : 1

O

P Q

Déposez votre fichier ici pour le déplacer vers cet enregistrement.

## Near-criticality in mathematical models of epidemics Luczak, Malwina | CIRM H

Multi angle

Research talks;Probability and Statistics

In an epidemic model, the basic reproduction number $R_{0}$ is a function of the parameters (such as infection rate) measuring disease infectivity. In a large population, if $R_{0}> 1$, then the disease can spread and infect much of the population (supercritical epidemic); if $R_{0}< 1$, then the disease will die out quickly (subcritical epidemic), with only few individuals infected.
For many epidemics, the dynamics are such that $R_{0}$ can cross the threshold from supercritical to subcritical (for instance, due to control measures such as vaccination) or from subcritical to supercritical (for instance, due to a virus mutation making it easier for it to infect hosts). Therefore, near-criticality can be thought of as a paradigm for disease emergence and eradication, and understanding near-critical phenomena is a key epidemiological challenge.
In this talk, we explore near-criticality in the context of some simple models of SIS (susceptible-infective-susceptible) epidemics in large homogeneous populations.
In an epidemic model, the basic reproduction number $R_{0}$ is a function of the parameters (such as infection rate) measuring disease infectivity. In a large population, if $R_{0}> 1$, then the disease can spread and infect much of the population (supercritical epidemic); if $R_{0}< 1$, then the disease will die out quickly (subcritical epidemic), with only few individuals infected.
For many epidemics, the dynamics are such that $R_{0}$ can ...

#### Filtrer

##### Audience

Titres de périodiques et e-books électroniques (Depuis le CIRM)

Ressources Electroniques

Books & Print journals

Recherche avancée

0
Z